Is Quebec a Mirror of the Global Future of Work?

In 1349, after the Black Death, Europe experienced a labor shift of unprecedented scale. The sudden scarcity of workers forced feudal lords to renegotiate conditions with peasants who, for the first time, held the power to decide where and how to work. Fast forward seven centuries, and Quebec in the 21st century seems to live through a paradox of its own: after years of historic labor shortages, the market is now “cooling”—not because of collapse, but through a fragile rebalancing full of lessons for the world. Could Quebec be a laboratory for the global future of work?

A Cooldown That Isn’t Decline

According to Quebec’s statistical institute (ISQ), in 2024 the province added 43,200 jobs—a modest 1% growth compared to 2023, the slowest pace since the pandemic. Yet the quality of these jobs tells a different story: nearly all the net growth came from full-time positions (+114,900), while part-time employment shrank

Quebec Labour Market Analysis

Meanwhile, unemployment rose from 4.7% in December 2023 to 5.6% a year later, reaching 6% by August 2025

Quebec Labour Market Analysis.

 Crisis? Not exactly. The real driver was a 2.7% surge in the working-age population—an increase of 195,300 people—far outpacing job creation

Quebec Labour Market Analysis

 This is less about layoffs and more about a mismatch between supply and demand.

The result: employers feel less pressure. Vacancies dropped 27% in 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels

Quebec Labour Market Analysis

. In 2022, there were more open jobs than unemployed workers; by late 2024, there were 2.3 unemployed per vacancy.

Quebec in the Canadian and Global Mirror

The contrast with other provinces is striking. While Quebec has stabilized, Ontario and British Columbia recorded net job losses—26,000 and 16,000 in August 2025 alone

Quebec Labour Market Analysis.

 Windsor’s unemployment reached 11.1%, Toronto’s 8.9%. By comparison, Quebec looks like a resilient outlier.

This resilience is no coincidence. Quebec’s job gains were concentrated in public sectors like health, education, and administration

Quebec Labour Market Analysis.

areas less vulnerable to international shocks. This mirrors Europe, where countries with robust public investment, such as Germany and the Nordics, weathered the 2008 financial crisis more effectively.

Globally, the same lesson stands: the quality of jobs matters as much as their quantity. In the U.S., digitalization is driving demand for highly specialized roles while eroding traditional employment. In Asia, countries like South Korea face the paradox of near full employment yet a generation of overqualified young workers stuck in precarious temporary jobs. Quebec is not alone in this dilemma: more education, more immigration, but slower absorption into the labor market.

Immigration: Solution or New Divide?

Perhaps the most revealing statistic is the unemployment gap by origin: 11.7% among temporary immigrants, 8% among permanent immigrants, and just 4.1% among native-born

Quebec Labour Market Analysis.

 Massive immigration once helped employers navigate shortages, but today it exposes integration challenges.

This is not unique to Quebec. Across Europe, the ILO reports migrants face nearly double the unemployment rates of locals. In the U.S., Pew Research shows immigrants sustain key sectors like agriculture and construction but often under precarious conditions.

The risk? Immigration could be seen not as a strategic resource but as a temporary buffer. The future of work will require policies that not only open the door but accelerate integration and reskilling in dynamic markets.

External Risks: Geopolitics Rules

Quebec’s Achilles’ heel remains its export dependence. The Institut du Québec warns that potential U.S. tariffs on aluminum and aerospace could heavily impact regions like Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean

Quebec Labour Market Analysis.

This highlights a broader truth: the future of work depends not only on technology and demographics, but also geopolitics.

Today’s uncertainty—war in Ukraine, tensions in Asia, potential tariffs in North America—is already slowing investments. RBC Economics notes businesses are adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach. The parallel to the 1970s oil crises is clear: external shocks can paralyze strategic decisions across industries.

Automation on the Horizon

Amid these shifts, automation is the silent player. The drop in vacancies does not mean businesses don’t need productivity; many are now pursuing it through AI and robotics. With Montreal’s thriving tech ecosystem, Quebec is well-positioned to experiment with this transition.

But the big question looms: will AI ease demographic pressures in healthcare and public services, or widen the gap for those unable to reskill? Japan’s pioneering use of care robots shows technology can mitigate demographic deficits, but also raises deep ethical and social dilemmas.

Lessons and Open Questions

Quebec’s story proves the future of work is anything but linear. Labor markets can swing from scarcity to surplus in just a few years—not by chance, but through the interplay of demographics, migration policy, and global economics. The current “cooling” is less a step backward than a reminder that labor markets are living systems, balanced on fragile ground.

The bigger question is whether governments and industries are planning for the next quarter or the next decade. Quebec suggests resilience comes not just from job numbers, but from job quality, true immigrant integration, investment in strategic sectors, and readiness for external shocks.

The world is watching, because Quebec’s paradox may soon become the global rule: a labor market where excess and shortage coexist, where AI collides with mass retirements, and where the integration of millions of migrants will define not only economies, but the very fabric of societies.