Quebec and Immigration: Lights, Shadows, and the Numbers Paradox
By Olinto Mendez – Becnet.ca
At a time when immigration is Canada’s main growth driver, Quebec finds itself in a complicated relationship with the phenomenon. Between federal targets, provincial realities, and the daily lives of thousands of newcomers, the debate goes far beyond charts and statistics: what direction is Quebec’s immigration model really taking?
The Federal Framework: Ambitious Targets, Different Realities
The Canadian government projects nearly 500,000 new permanent residents per year and more than 6 million temporary residents (visitors, students, and workers). In practice, the numbers fall short: just over 4.8 million temporary entries last year.
Internal IRCC notes further reveal that many “targets” are not firm policy goals, but simply projections based on historical trends. In other words, they are often administrative forecasts rather than political choices.
Quebec: Between Selection Power and Migration Dependence
Thanks to its special agreement with Ottawa, Quebec has the authority to select a large share of its immigrants. Still, its overall share in Canadian immigration fluctuates: from 16% in 2022 down to 11% in 2023, with a slight recovery to 12% in 2024.
The paradox is striking: Quebec’s population growth depends almost entirely on international migration. Natural growth is close to zero.
Integration: Achievements and Limits
National figures are encouraging:
78% employment rate among newcomers.
60% reach median income.
90% report a strong sense of belonging.
In Quebec, language training shows solid results: 85–90% completion rates in French courses, alongside support programs like Objectif Intégration and PASI. Still, these achievements coexist with structural challenges.
The French Paradox
Official discourse emphasizes protecting French as the language of integration. And to some extent, it works: 72% of permanent residents in Quebec already speak French upon arrival.
But the picture changes dramatically for temporary residents:
53% of temporary foreign workers speak French.
59% under international mobility.
Only 41% of international students.
In practice, while Quebec carefully selects permanent residents for their French skills, it simultaneously receives massive inflows of temporary residents with much lower proficiency.
Persistent Challenges: Bureaucracy, Overqualification, and Asylum
Quebec’s immigration system faces recurring bottlenecks:
Processing delays: only 60% of temporary and 56% of permanent applications are handled on time (far from the 80% target).
Overqualification: 40% of immigrants work below their education level—double the rate of Canadian-born workers.
Asylum: over 51% of claims since 2017 remain unresolved; just 21% of appeals are successful.
Meanwhile, the explosion of non-permanent residents (NPRs) is so significant that the Quebec statistics agency had to change its counting methods, with ripple effects on housing, healthcare, and social cohesion.
Public Opinion and Resources Under Pressure
Public support for immigration is slipping: from 76% to 61% in recent years, below the 65% benchmark. Housing shortages and infrastructure strain fuel this decline.
At the same time, IRCC’s budget stands at CAD $4.2 billion, with $3.2 billion earmarked for integration. Yet looming cuts of $466 million and nearly 1,000 staff positions cast doubt on the system’s capacity. The contradiction is clear: fewer resources at a time of greater demand.
Between Lights and Shadows
Quebec can point to undeniable successes: solid employment outcomes, committed French-language programs, and steady attraction of francophone permanent residents.
But it also faces deep challenges: bureaucratic backlogs, widespread overqualification, mounting pressure from temporary residents, an overburdened asylum system, and waning public support.
Ultimately, one key question remains: will the Quebec of tomorrow resemble the one presented in official plans—or the one lived daily by newcomers building their future here?
